warrennotg asked: If Newt could somehow manage to win the Republican nomination, what chance do you think he has of getting enough Independent votes to win the general election (especially considering Obama's poll numbers and an economy that may still be weak come November 2012)?
If the Republican primaries were today, all at once or whatever, Newt would trounce Romney. I’ve been asking Conservatives what they consider Newt’s baggage to be, and the answers are different than what you and I consider Newt’s baggage. Newt’s winning the Republican primary isn’t going to be stopped by his past problems- maybe something new will though? or his structural problems he will need to correct.
Newt has several flaws right now in his primary that he needs to shore up: He has money coming in very quickly and no one to manage it effectively, he has no staff, he has no volunteers, he has no plan to victory other than “I’m popular” right now. If he can turn his fat ass around fast enough he can shore this up.
Once this battle is over, it’s almost like you need to totally re-evaluate and discover the facts on the ground again before you can begin to see how the next battle will turn out. At this time in 2007 Hillary Clinton was still the likely nominee and her opponent was either going to be Rudy Guiliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, or Fred Thompson- It’s fun to see if Obama can beat Gingrich but I don’t believe anyone’s opinion about it right now because we don’t know the reality of the next fight.
I’m going to give a “no-duh” answer and I don’t want you or anyone to be offended, but I think it is the most useful in order to tackle your question. Presidents are elected by 270 electoral college votes and there are a ton of ways that that can happen and anything more than that is not wholly a true statement.
so 50/50. Newt or whoever will have the full power of the GOP behind him and Obama’s small donations resource has been leveled by Citizen’s United (and the FEC’s vote last night to NOT advise American Crossroads as to how intimate a working relationship they can have with politicians).
Also, Michael Bloomberg’s “I have an Army” speech was a brandishing of his executive experience and Jon Huntsman hasn’t ruled out an independent campaign. I don’t think he will win, but either of these could greatly change how the general election will pan out. without knowing what they and any other number of variables (or even how many variables there are- Ron Paul won’t have a house seat to go back to).
Right now we have two major parties that always win the Presidency and I can say that with certainty, Gingrich’s chance of winning if he wins the nomination is 50/50.