For Super Tuesday, there are the following contests:
State Contest type delegates
Alaska Caucus 27
Georgia WTA:D WTA:S 76
Idaho Caucus 32
Massachusetts proportional primary 41
North Dakota Caucus 28
Ohio WTA:D WTA:S 66
Oklahoma WTA:D WTA:S 43
Tennessee Complicated 58
Vermont WTA:D WTA:S 17
Virginia WTA:D WTA:S 49
437 delegates
Unpledged Caucus delegates at stake: 67
Pledged Primary delegates: 329 + 41 in Massachusetts
Wyoming is listed as being in Super Tuesday by the NYT. The Caucuses have completed though as of the 29th so I don’t know why this is.
Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and Massachusetts have straight forward contests. Massachusetts has a 15% threshold to qualify to win delegates which are then allocated proportionally.
Super Tuesday has no true Winner-take-all states like Arizona or Florida or simple winner take all district or statewide rules like South Carolina.
Georgia, Ohio, Oklahoma, Vermont, and Virginia have similar primaries. Congressional district delegates are awarded three per district. If you are over a vote threshold in the district, you win delegates in the district and if you are over 50% you win all three. Vote thresholds are 20% in these states, except Oklahoma, which is 15%. Georgia’s rules spell out that if you are the winner in the district you receive two delegates, and the runner-up receives one. I suppose it is possible for a district to award one delegate two three candidates but I don’t know how likely that is with the threshold requirement.
Examples:
1.
Romney: 55%
Santorum: 28%
Paul: 12%
Gingrich: 5%
Romney receives three delegates.
2.
Romney: 35%
Santorum: 30%
Paul: 25%
Gingrich: 10%
In Georgia: Romney would receive two and Santorum one. In any of the other states: Romney Santorum and Paul would each earn one delegate (as I understand the rules).
3.
Romney: 40%
Santorum: 35%
Paul: 16%
Gingrich: 9%
Romney receives two, Santorum one (explicitly in Georgia). in Oklahoma: Romney, Santorum and Paul each get one (as I understand the rules).
The same rules are extrapolated to statewide delegates. If a candidate gets over 50% he wins them all. If under 50% but above the threshold, he proportionally shares them with the other candidates who did the same.
Tennessee uses the same rules as Georgia except to win all a district delegates or all statewide delegates, you need 66% of the vote with a 20% threshold. So if Romney wins 65% of a district and Santorum wins 21%, Romney will still only receive two delegates and Santorum receives one.
Additionally in several states, three delegates are usually unbound and can endorse anyone they want. This is true for Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ohio, Virginia BUT not Vermont or Georgia.
Clear as mud, right?
Virginia only has two candidates on the ballot, Paul and Romney. Romney is the clear favorite in all polling and I expect him to win all of Virginia’s delegates, especially now with Eric Cantor’s endorsement.
I expect states to go to these candidates:
Romney: Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia (all)
Santorum: Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota
Gingrich: Georgia
Toss-up: Ohio
Here are some polls:
Georgia:
Poll Date Sample Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul Spread
RCP Average 2/23 - 3/1 — 39.3 23.8 20.5 6.0 Gingrich +15.5
Mason-Dixon 2/28 - 3/1 625 LV 38 24 22 3 Gingrich +14
Landmark/Rosetta Stone 3/1 - 3/1 950 LV 42 22 16 5 Gingrich +20
Rasmussen Reports 3/1 - 3/1 750 LV 38 26 20 7 Gingrich +12
SurveyUSA 2/23 - 2/26 457 LV 39 23 24 9 Gingrich +15
Ohio:
Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread
RCP Average 2/29 - 3/2 — 34.0 31.3 15.7 12.0 Santorum +2.7
NBC News/Marist 2/29 - 3/2 820 LV 34 32 15 13 Santorum +2
Rasmussen Reports 3/1 - 3/1 750 LV 33 31 15 11 Santorum +2
Quinnipiac 2/29 - 3/1 517 LV 35 31 17 12 Santorum +4
Tennessee:
Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread
RCP Average 2/13 - 3/3 — 37.3 23.0 14.7 11.3 Santorum +14.3
Rasmussen Reports 3/3 - 3/3 750 LV 34 30 18 8 Santorum +4
Middle Tn. State U. 2/13 - 2/25 196 A 40 19 13 11 Santorum +21
Tennessean/Vanderbilt 2/16 - 2/22 815 RV 38 20 13 15 Santorum +18
Oklahoma:
Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread
RCP Average 2/8 - 2/21 — 41.0 20.5 20.0 7.5 Santorum +20.5
Rasmussen Reports 2/21 - 2/21 750 LV 43 18 22 7 Santorum +21
Sooner Poll 2/8 - 2/16 300 LV 39 23 18 8 Santorum +16
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