May 6, 2012
jakke: So here’s how things are looking for the Greek election. They’re at 82% reporting, but most of the remaining votes are around Athens, Piraeus, and Thessalonika - all strong SYRIZA territory. So we can probably expect a slight shift towards SYRIZA, but no more than a seat or two. I was going to do a big long post on the possibilities for coalitions and so on, but with this seat distribution there are basically just two possibilities: ND and PASOK continue on as a pro-austerity pro-bailout pro-eurozone coalition with the bare minimum number of seats until someone defects and the coalition collapses. A fresh round of elections gets called for next month. There really aren’t any other feasible governing prospects here. Honestly I’m expecting #2, because a “grand coalition” style government that received just under a third of the total vote (and around a quarter of the total vote in the capital) would be perceived as having very little legitimacy and almost certainly would not last.

jakke:

So here’s how things are looking for the Greek election. They’re at 82% reporting, but most of the remaining votes are around Athens, Piraeus, and Thessalonika - all strong SYRIZA territory. So we can probably expect a slight shift towards SYRIZA, but no more than a seat or two.

I was going to do a big long post on the possibilities for coalitions and so on, but with this seat distribution there are basically just two possibilities:

  1. ND and PASOK continue on as a pro-austerity pro-bailout pro-eurozone coalition with the bare minimum number of seats until someone defects and the coalition collapses.
  2. A fresh round of elections gets called for next month.

There really aren’t any other feasible governing prospects here. Honestly I’m expecting #2, because a “grand coalition” style government that received just under a third of the total vote (and around a quarter of the total vote in the capital) would be perceived as having very little legitimacy and almost certainly would not last.

8:49pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZmCeYyL0WHB_
(Notes: 73)
  
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    Golden Dawn!
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    The coalition should’ve expected an outrage - completely legitimate outrage.
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    Jakke knows more about international politics than you do. In this case, Greece.
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