Surely you feel silly about the pre-emptive “buses of false voters” claims. Nobody in the bluest county in Wisconsin (Menominee) even came out to fucking vote. As bad as Walker winning is, the peripheral data is dramatically worse.
We are talking a 1994-style rout for Democrats…
Counterpoint: Republican turnout stats were ridiculously high - red counties came out in force (like, 200k of 300k in force). What this suggests is that Obama or not, the reds are coming out this November. The only chance for Dems is a 2008-esque high-youth-turnout election, and the likelihood of that is slim to none.
I mean, long way off, but the InTrade on Romneybot + Republican Congress is looking like a hell of a buy right now.
Republicans typically turnout in force- but 1994 turnout is still very low compared to any presidential year. national turnout in ‘94 was 39% a record high for a midterm, but well below 2000’s 51%, a record low for a presidential.
It’s all relative, right? This is a non-presidential with 60+ red turnout. It’s irresponsible to infer as much as I’m inferring, probably, because there have only been 3 of these. But it’s time to feel a lot less assured about 4 more years - the clear pattern of disinterested blue voters is a fucking terrible signal.
This was a very, VERY bad technical, to put it in my language. Like, “death cross” or “Hindenburg omen” bad.
right, it’s relative. what drives mid terms and presidentials is different, or special elections and primaries, like this. so they shouldn’t be compared, I think now especially more than ever, given that I think it could be shown that there is a divergence between both parties, with one obsessed with ideology and another obsessed with personality.
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