"Until Perry’s popularity in Iowa can be verified by polls of likely Caucus-goers, the most plausible scenario is a Bachmann win in the Caucuses, followed by Romney victories in Nevada and New Hampshire, and then a Perry breakthrough in South Carolina. This scenario would take the GOP into uncharted territory, since there’s never been a presidential nominating contest where the first three big states were won by three different candidates, all of them with some level of national support and all of them demonstrably strong fundraisers. It’s the sort of situation where relatively small developments—a gaffe, a strong or poor debate performance, a monomaniacal series of attacks from minor candidates, a failure to meet media expectations—could become very big deals.i"
Pull Yourself Together, DC! Perrymania Is Overrated | The New Republic (via apsies)
WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG, WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!
This is the Republican Primary not the Democratic Primary. Republicans are an actual party. There is one media outlet (well, cable) they care about, and gaffe does not equal gaffe. Obama had a gaffe when he said Hillary was “likeable enough.” Perry has said like four of those in the last 48 hours (shoot bernanke, something about his wife, others? who cares, i forget).
yeah TNR, what is Bachmann going to do if she comes off as ‘crazy?’ it would totally sink her in some state, right?
also, minor point, Perry’s win in SC is winner take all, the others are proportional, Perry would still be the delegate leader.
Romney might match him later in the first super Tuesday (which is mostly North East states). but he isn’t going to win those states in a general election anyway (except maybe New Hampshire), when Perry while Perry wins Florida (also winner take all while the blue states are proportional).